Horse Racing: How To Find False Favorites And Remove Them – Part 1

How to find false favorites and remove them is to grasp that this depends on your level of recognizing the quality of the horse(s) in question. There are false favorites and false long shots. A false favorite is when the player believes that the public has made a mistake and that the horse has a much less chance of winning than the public feels. A false long shot is when the player believes that the public has misjudged and the horse(s) has a much better chance of coming in a more favorable position.

There are a handful of ways to determine to some degree if a favorite is false. The morning line favorite (the horse(s) with lowest odds) win on average 32% of the time and the tote board favorite win on average 33% of the time. This is a simple statistical average. This means that the tote board’s and morning line’s favorite is false on average 67% and 68% of the time respectively. Whenever you handicap you must search for the true favorite and remove the false favorite. Remember: there are several or more reasons why a morning line and/or tote board favorite may not win.

So the percent written above are generalities but statistically true. So what are some of the ways you can use to find false favorites? Or how to find false favorites and remove them. To begin: (1) 67%-68% of the tote board’s and morning line’s favorites are false. (2) Whatever horse in fact wins the race is in fact the true favorite. From a reality perspective. Why? Because that’s the horse that in fact won. Reality has the last word (so to speak). No matter what the odds are, morning line, tote board or player believes. (3) Bet the favorite from the morning line and tote to lose and you will be right 67%-68% of the time.

Also: (4) Is the horse carrying much more weight than last race? if yes it may be false. (5) Does the horse have a lady jockey or apprentice jockey. (6) Did the horse do good or bad in its last trip (trip handicapping) and why? (7) Did the horse bounce in its last race. A bounce is when a horse raced very good in one race but was lack-luster in its next. (8) Look for favorites that aren’t in peak physical condition. (9) Favorite hasn’t run in 35 or more days.

Also: (10) The jockey/trainer combination percent is low. (11) Has inconsistent form over its last three most recent races. (12) Look for closers (farthest back but can still win) that can beat today’s favorite. (13) Won in last 5-10 days but had no prior wins before that. Advanced handicapping deals with false favorites so these are few points and others will be given in part two but this is a very small sampling of how to find false favorites and remove them.